Hudson Bay polar bears now considered most likely to survive future sea ice loss

Over the last 10 years, Hudson Bay polar bears have morphed from being the “most at risk” across the Arctic to the “least at risk.” Who would have thought?

That’s probably because the experts now have to admit that polar bear numbers have not declined since 2004 and bears have been in good body condition since at least 2016. Southern Hudson Bay bears have apparently increased in number since 2016. How ironic is it that the photo above, taken in Hudson Bay — the only Arctic region where trees grow — was used to illustrate a recent Mother Jones article promoting a new prediction of future Arctic summer sea ice loss that’s said to pose a threat to polar bear survival.

Here is a brief retrospective of predictions for survival of Western Hudson Bay polar bears (based on predictions of future sea ice loss), my emphasis throughout:

2013

In 2013, Andrew Derocher told The Guardian (27 November):

“All indications are that this population could collapse in the space of a year or two if conditions got bad enough,” said Andrew Derocher, a polar bear scientist at the University of Alberta.

“In 2020, I think it is still an open bet that we are going to have polar bears in western Hudson Bay.”

Contrary to this prediction, sea ice conditions over Western Hudson Bay haven’t changed since about 1998: most years, the ice-free season has been about 3 weeks longer than it was in the 1980s. Summer sea ice conditions are not getting worse.

2016

In 2016, seal biologist Steve Ferguson told the Winnipeg Free Press (6 December):

Hudson Bay could experience its first ice-free winter within five to 10 years, Ferguson said.

“I don’t think polar bears and seals will be able to adapt. I think they’ll just die out in places like Hudson Bay. There’s little to stop the trend in loss of sea ice, even if we stop producing greenhouse gasses,” he said.

Contrary to this dire prediction, Hudson Bay has been no where near to ice-free in winter, see the sea ice development chart below showing ice thickness for the week of 4 March 2024:

2024

Steven Amstrup told the Winnipeg Free Press in 2024 (28 February) the following about Western Hudson Bay polar bears, seemingly in direct contradiction to a paper he co-authored last year:

Even so, the population seems to be faring better than the rest of the world, Amstrup said during his presentation.

“If there’s a likelihood of being able to save bears anywhere, it’s probably in (the) Hudson Bay,” he said.

The rate of decline in sea ice is lower in the western and southern portions of the Hudson Bay than anywhere else globally, Amstrup relayed.

This prediction seems like a clear admission that previous predictions were wrong. This means that any of the models that formerly used WH bears as a proxy to predict the survival of all other subpopulations, including the one published last year, are not worth the paper they were printed on. What a surprise!