Tag Archives: sea ice

Polar bear habitat update: as much sea ice in 2017 as 2006 at 18 January

Sea ice charts for 18 January from NSIDC Masie show exactly as much sea ice in 2017 as there was back in 2006 – 13.4 mkm2.

masie_all_zoom_4km-2017-jan-18

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New paper asks: Has recent sea ice loss caused polar bear populations to crash?

A paper published today finds that predictions of polar bear population crashes due to summer sea ice loss are based on a scientifically unfounded assumption.

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[The graphic above was created by me from the title page and two figures from the paper]

Specifically, this paper of mine addresses the basic premise upon which predicted population declines linked to modeled habitat loss made by polar bear specialists back in 2006 and 2008 (by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature, IUCN, and the US Fish and Wildlife Service, USFWS), and concludes that when assessed as a testable hypothesis against data collected since then, it must be rejected.

The forum for this paper is PeerJ Preprints,  which I found while looking for recent research papers about ringed seals. I discovered that Canadian ringed seal biologist Dr. Steven Ferguson recently used this service, which is free, open access, accepts review commentary, and will show up on Google and Google Scholar searches.

Ferguson et al. 2016. Demographic, ecological and physiological responses of ringed seals to an abrupt decline in sea ice availability. DOI:10.7287/peerj.preprints.2309v1 Pdf here. https://peerj.com/preprints/2309/

I decided that if this publication forum was good enough for Ferguson and his Arctic research community, it was good enough for me.

Crockford, S.J. 2017. Testing the hypothesis that routine sea ice coverage of 3-5 mkm2 results in a greater than 30% decline in population size of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). PeerJ Preprints 19 January 2017. Doi: 10.7287/peerj.preprints.2737v1 Open access. https://peerj.com/preprints/2737/  (pdf here).

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Polar bears onshore in Svalbard in most dangerous season for bear attacks

Yesterday marked the first report I’ve found for polar bears onshore this winter, in a potentially dangerous repeat of a pattern that has become all-too common in recent years (especially last year) with bear populations booming virtually everywhere (but especially around Svalbard).

longyearbyen_sm_location_wikipedia

This is the leanest time of year for polar bears – fat Arctic seal pups won’t be available for another 2-3 months and meals for polar bears are hard to come by – and that makes the bears especially dangerous.

So, despite the marked lack of sea ice around Svalbard this winter, a female polar bear with two cubs were reported near the community of Longyearbyen (still enduring 24 hours of darkness) – on the west coast of the archipelago (see map above), where sea ice has been virtually non-existent for years (see map below).

Svalbard ice 2017 Jan 17_NIS.png

It appears these bears traveled overland from ice off the east coast. There is no mention in any of the reports that the bears were thin or in poor body condition, or had so far caused any of the problems for which desperately hungry polar bears are famous. However, one dog-sledding guide had a frightening encounter in the dark in this on-going saga that began over the weekend (details and photos below). Continue reading

Fake news on polar bear survival predictions is political posturing

I call this fake news because it’s not news – media headlines around the world today (New York Times, Washington Post, DailyMail) are trumpeting the release of a final version of a draft report released with similar fanfare more than a year ago, announced today by the US Fish & Wildlife Service in the official US government publication, Federal Register.

biggest-threat-to-polar-bears-is-global-warming-nyt-headline_9-jan-2017

Without action on climate change, say goodbye to polar bears” is exactly the kind of sensationalized nonsense I address in my new detailed science book, Polar Bears: Outstanding Survivors of Climate Change (announced here, discussed here).
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Polar bear habitat message for the year end: 2016 Arctic ice extent same as 2010

According to NSIDC daily sea ice interactive graph,  there was ever so slightly more ice on 31 Dec 2016 than on that date in 2010. However, the corresponding ice maps show just how differently that ice was distributed.

sea-ice-at-31-dec-2016_vs-2010_nsidc-interactive

Recall that in 2010, there was no huge die-off of polar bears attributed to reduced amounts of sea ice in the fall (or to reduced ice in summer, for that matter) because there was no catastrophic die-off at all.

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Polar bear habitat update and attempts to spoil the good news for kids

The trolls are out in force at Amazon, posting negative reviews of my new book, Polar Bear Facts & Myths – they just hate it when credible scientists won’t promote a message of doom. It seems folks of this ilk truly want children to have nightmares about drowning, starving polar bears; they encourage kids to frantically turn out lights in a vain attempt to “Save The Sea Ice” while unbeknownst to them, the polar bears and seals prosper.

I expect those same fear-mongers will really hate my next book, due to be released early next week, because it presents the evidence in a way all readers will understand with the references to back it up. Polar bears and ringed seals are thriving despite recent losses of summer sea ice and there is seemingly a huge body of activists and scientists who don’t want people to know that simple fact.

Coming soon    Polar Bears: Outstanding Survivors of Climate Change

Back to polar bear habitat news, here is the sea ice map for 30 December 2016: Hudson Bay iced-over and lots of ice moving down southern Davis Strait:

Sea ice extent Canada 2016 Dec30_CIS.gif

Compare to last year at this time, when polar bears did not die off in droves anywhere in Canada (or we would have heard about it) – remember that 2/3 of the word’s polar bears live in Canada:

canadian-arctic-dec-30-2015_cis

Polar Bear Facts & Myths now available and may arrive in time for Christmas

The first science book suitable for kids that tells the whole truth about polar bears and climate change is now for sale at Amazon.

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This beautiful, full color summary (44 pages, 8 x 10 inches) explains in simple terms why polar bears are thriving despite the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. It’s written in a question and answer format, in language that readers of all ages can understand (age 7 and up). The book takes a sensible, big-picture approach that many readers will appreciate and is based on the most up-to-date information available.

This is the perfect gift for some of the polar bear lovers on your gift list and if you act quickly (order here), your book may arrive before the 25th. At this time, only the paperback is available but some ebook versions should be out shortly. 

For purchasers for which a pre-Christmas delivery isn’t going to work (publication will be later in Europe; shipping is faster to eastern Canada and the US than to the west), I have provided a gift card you can download to print off and give in lieu of the physical book (kind of a placeholder until it arrives).

UPDATE: 18 Dec. 2016 Now listed at Amazon Canada and Amazon UK

Download gift card PDF HERE for Polar Bear Facts & Myths

Download gift card PDF HERE for Polar Bears: Outstanding Survivors of Climate Change  (coming soon, see below).

[Download Christmas gift cards, one per page, for both books here]

Check my book website for updates.

For adults & high school students (coming soon Now available)

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This color, fully-referenced polar bear science book is aimed at adults and high school students. Polar Bears: Outstanding Survivors of Climate Change is fashioned after the popular lecture with the same title I have given since 2009, which has been enthusiastically received by audiences with diverse backgrounds.

My book website now has full details of these new non-fiction books (along with a revised author biography) and will be updated regularly regarding formats and venues as they become available. Details for EATEN on that site has moved to its own fiction page.