Tag Archives: Red list

Amstrup knows his polar bear predictions are flawed – but continues to promote them

Posted on November 29, 2014 | Comments Off

The largest conservation organization in the world says that predictive models developed by polar bear biologist Steven Amstrup are utterly unsuitable for scientifically estimating future populations. Earlier this year, mathematical modeling experts at the International Union for the Conservation of Nature, who maintain the Red List of Threatened Species, made it clear that Amstrup’s models (used in 2008 to convince the US Fish and Wildlife Service to list polar bears as ‘threatened’ due to predicted global warming) do not meet IUCN standards.

I’d say this makes Amstrup’s polar bear projections (Amstrup et al. 2008, 2010) no more scientifically useful than a crystal ball prophesy, but you wouldn’t know it by his recent actions — or the silence of his fellows.

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Posted in Advocacy, Conservation Status, Sea ice habitat

Tagged Amstrup, Bayesian models, conservation, crystal ball, data deficient, ESA, extinction, IPCC, IUCN, models, PBSG, polar bear, Polar Bear Specialist Group, predictions, Red list, Resit Akçakaya, sea ice, threatened, vulnerable

Polar bear listed as a migratory species by UNEP to restrict oil exploration & extraction

Posted on November 9, 2014 | Comments Off

In a press release this afternoon, the Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals (CMS) announced it had added polar bears to their list of Appendix II migratory species. [CMS is a pseudo-arm of the UN Environment Programme, the UNEP¹]

“The Polar Bear, the largest apex predator on Earth is affected by climate change that has led to the loss of 2 million m2 of sea ice. The Appendix II listing introduces the global perspective of existing threats to Arctic species stemming from shipping and oil exploration, making it a case for all CMS Parties.“

But why formally list the polar bear as a migratory species when it is protected under several other national and international programs?

UPDATED 10 November 2014, see additions below
Continue reading

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Posted in Conservation Status, Sea ice habitat

Tagged Arctic oil, BBC, climate change, CMS, global warming, migratory species, oil exploration, oil money, polar bear, Red list, sea ice habitat, UNEP

PBSG determined to see polar bears listed as threatened by the IUCN in 2015

Posted on July 30, 2014 | Comments Off

IUCN Polar Bear Specialist Group conservation biologists are determined to have polar bears listed as ‘threatened with extinction’ by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) in 2015 – even though the bears would not meet that classification if assessed today.

According to the minutes of their last meeting (in addition to the astonishing admissions from sea ice experts I reported yesterday), PBSG members are busy planning their strategy. They have thrown objectivity to the wind and are certain they can find a way to ~~mask~~ overcome the inadequacies of their case and see polar bears remain listed as ‘vulnerable’ (IUCN-equivalent to ‘threatened’ in the US) on the 2015 IUCN Red List update.

Along with some other priceless quotes, the minutes reveal their plan. See the original document for the context of these quotes here and an excerpt of “the plan” (pgs. 12-17) here. Continue reading

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Posted in Conservation Status, Population

Tagged Bayesian models, conservation biology, conservation status, IUCN, PBSG, polar bear, population estimates, predictions, Red list, threatened, vulnerable