The largest conservation organization in the world says that predictive models developed by polar bear biologist Steven Amstrup are utterly unsuitable for scientifically estimating future populations. Earlier this year, mathematical modeling experts at the International Union for the Conservation of Nature, who maintain the Red List of Threatened Species, made it clear that Amstrup’s models (used in 2008 to convince the US Fish and Wildlife Service to list polar bears as ‘threatened’ due to predicted global warming) do not meet IUCN standards.
I’d say this makes Amstrup’s polar bear projections (Amstrup et al. 2008, 2010) no more scientifically useful than a crystal ball prophesy, but you wouldn’t know it by his recent actions — or the silence of his fellows.
Posted in Advocacy, Conservation Status, Sea ice habitat
Tagged Amstrup, Bayesian models, conservation, crystal ball, data deficient, ESA, extinction, IPCC, IUCN, models, PBSG, polar bear, Polar Bear Specialist Group, predictions, Red list, Resit Akçakaya, sea ice, threatened, vulnerable
Since 1971, there have been only two years with as little sea ice in Davis Strait as there was this year at this time – 2003 and 2010. But the ice is forming rapidly and history shows it will likely catch up enough by next week to allow most Davis Strait polar bears to start hunting seals except along the Labrador coast.
Courtesy IUCN PBSG
Have a look at the ice maps and charts below from the Canadian Ice Service for the status of freeze-up in Davis Strait.
UPDATE 30 November 2014: Sea ice extent map from NSIDC added.