Tag Archives: problem bears

Problem polar bears in Churchill at this date show 2017 less than 2016 and 2015

Comparing Churchill problem bear statistics over a few years provides some critical perspective: this year, the bears are causing much fewer problems.

This 2nd week in September is no exception, being the 9th week ashore in all cases: 2017 (4-10 September, where I think “total number of polar bear occurrence reports to date” should be 64, not 53, see week 7 report here), 2016 (5-11 September), 2015 (7-13 September), where there were about 1/2 the number of bears in “jail” this year compared to the last two years (i. e., 6 vs. 11 and 12) and slightly more than 1/2 the number of occurrence reports in 2017 than in 2016 and 2015 (64 vs. 107 and 99):

2017 week 9 Sept 4-11 may be typo

2016-sept-5-11_week-9.jpg

2015 Sept 7-13_at Sept 14

 

 

Problem bear reports confirm Churchill polar bears are in excellent condition

Now that all bears are ashore for the season, the folks at the Polar Bear Alert program in Churchill note in their report for week 7 (21-27 August, 2017) that the bears ashore are in excellent condition (confirming reports on the first bears ashore in July):

Churchill PB reports_week 7_ Aug 21-27_2017_Aug 28

Rather marked contrast to the pessimistic spin on conditions from the field a few months ago:

[yes, a few bears fail to make it through the winter, especially young bears; but that has always been the case — it’s not a sign of human-caused global warming catastrophe]

Last week’s problem bear report also confirmed news from the Churchill Polar Bears website a few weeks ago that showed several images of very fat bears:

Churchill_PolarBears_FAT bear post_21 Aug 2017

See below for last year’s report for week 7 and this year’s report for week 8 (28 August-3 September). Western Hudson Bay polar bears that come ashore near Churchill, Manitoba are starting their third month on land this week, out of the five months or so they have spent ashore in recent years (about 3 weeks more than in the 1980s, no longer than they did in 2004 — conditions have not been getting worse).

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Fat polar bears [and lots of them] drive public confidence in future of the species

What is causing the death of the polar bear as a climate change icon? Fat bears are part of it, but mostly it’s the fact that polar bear numbers haven’t declined as predicted.

Western Hudson Bay polar bears around Churchill, Manitoba appear mostly in good shape this summer despite the very late freeze-up last fall, including the very fat bear caught on camera below (see more great pictures here):

Churchill_PolarBears_FAT bear post_21 Aug 2017

Not only have we been seeing pictures of fat bears rather than starving bears in recent years but there are lots of them, in Western Hudson Bay and other seasonal sea ice regions where there should be none (if the models had been correct). No wonder polar bears are falling out of favour as an icon for catastrophic human-caused global warming.

[Here’s another picture of a fat bear, this one from Svalbard]

Excuses for why the public is no longer worried about the future of polar bears include a recent claim by climate scientist Michael Mann that “by making polar bears and penguins the poster child for climate change, we have wrongly conveyed that this is some exotic problem far off.

But none of these apologists acknowledge the simple truth: the models that  predicted catastrophe for polar bears due to diminished summer sea ice turned out to be wrong. The sea ice declined but polar bears flourished. Polar bears in seasonal sea ice ecoregions like Western Hudson Bay and Baffin Bay didn’t die off due to climate change as people were told would happen — why should they believe any of the other scare stories?

In and around Churchill, where tourists flock to see Western Hudson Bay polar bears up close and personal, one bear in good condition recently ran through town:

Overall, there have been fewer problems or conflicts this year in Churchill compared to last (after 6 weeks of onshore living), see below.

Polar bears are no longer a useful global warming icon because they are thriving despite diminished sea ice: Churchill area polar bears are a good example.

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Churchill polar bear reports to 6 August show fewer problems than last two years

Churchill, Manitoba Polar Bear Alert Program problem bear reports for weeks 3 (24 July – 30 July 2017) and 4 (31 July – 6 August 2017) show much less activity and fewer problems in this Western Hudson Bay location than were reported for the last two years (2016 and 2015) at the same time (relative to the first reports of the season):

Churchill PB reports_week 4_ July 31- Aug 6_2017

Compare 2017 to last year (2016) at this time, where the problem bear report claims numbers were similar to 2015 (for which I don’t have a week 4 report), with more bears handled and placed in “jail”:

2016 Aug 1-7_week 4

But most Western Hudson Bay bears are at their highest body weight when they come off the ice in early summer and present little risk to humans who keep their distance — few bears cause any real problems this time of year. Compare the above problem bear reports to the blog post from Seal River Lodge, just north of Churchill (5 August 2017, from Churchill Wild Eco-Lodge), which reports seeing 11 bears in one day of viewing. Great photos at this post confirm those bears are in good physical condition and interacting with each other without bothering people.

Seal River polar bear report for 2017 Aug 5

Seal River Lodge location 2017

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Churchill polar bear report 24-30 July rather boring compared to last year

This is the third week of reports from the Churchill Polar Bear Alert Program but not much in the way of excitement or information, although more bears must be ashore by now.

Churchill PB reports_week 3_ July 24-30_July 2017

Compare to last year at this time, when there was much more activity:

2016 July 25_31_week 3

There was still some thick ice lingering off the coast of Western Hudson Bay last week, as this weekly ice chart shows:

Hudson Bay ice weekly stage of development 2017_July 24

Problem polar bears of Churchill: first report of the season similar to 2016

The first activity report of the Churchill Polar Bear Alert Program has been released for 2017. It comes on the same week as last year’s (so about the same dates for first bears ashore both years), and reports pretty much the same activity.

Churchill PB reports_week 1_ July 10-16_July 2017

Odd that this year’s report contains no mention whatsoever of the condition of the bears as did last year’s (see below), which may have brought criticism for spoiling the media ‘message’ that WHB bears are suffering because of reduced sea ice. Better no comment at all than good news, eh?

Sea ice for the week of 10 July off Western Hudson Bay this year consisted of a broad strip of thick first year ice (>1.2m thick) just off shore.

Hudson Bay weekly ice stage of development 2017 July 10

The ice charted above looked like this on a standard ice map:

Sea ice Canada 2017 July 11

There are no other reports that I could find of polar bears ashore along the coast of Western Hudson Bay, so these bears must be the first wave.

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Polar bear mating season winds down with lots of sea ice habitat available

Habitat for polar bears is abundant worldwide as the prime feeding season passes its peak and mating season for sexually mature bears winds down.

JR1_1266.tif

Battle among polar bear males for the right to mate, from this 2011 DailyMail story here.

There is much more ice than usual around Svalbard in the Barents Sea and off Newfoundland and southern Labrador, home to ‘Davis Strait’ bears. There have been no media reports of polar bears onshore anywhere (since the third week of April in Newfoundland and late January in Svalbard).

Sea ice map below for 12 May 2017:

Svalbard ice extent 2017 May 12_NIS

Compare the extent and concentration of ice around Svalbard above (at 12 May 2017) to conditions that prevailed on the same date in 2015 (below), considered a “good ice” year for local polar bears (and the year of the last population size count which registered an increase over the 2004 count):

Svalbard ice extent 2015 May 12_NIS

There hasn’t been this much ice in the area at this point in the season for many years, especially to the north of Svalbard, and levels since late April have been above even the long-term average (disregard the huge downward blip, which is clearly a sensor malfunction of some kind):

Svalbard ice extent 2017 May 12 graph_NIS

In fact, ice is pretty solid throughout the Barents Sea and East Greenland at this time:

Barents Sea ice extent 2017 May 12_NIS

Across the Atlantic, the situation is similar, with unseasonably heavy sea ice off eastern North America and the Southern Beaufort Sea.

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