Sea ice in the Arctic a bit below the 1981-2010 average for this date but still within two standard deviations, with more ice than average off Canada — indicating we are still within expected natural variation, statistically speaking.
Remember that the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) says this about standard deviation:
“Measurements that fall far outside of the two standard deviation range or consistently fall outside that range suggest that something unusual is occurring that can’t be explained by normal processes.”
Ice maps below, click to enlarge.
Figure 1. Sea ice and lake ice concentration from the Canadian Ice Service (CIS) for 31 January, 2014. Note the amount of ice in the east, off Labrador (the “Davis Strait” polar bear subpopulation).
Figure 2. Sea ice extent from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) for 29 January 2014. Note that the extent of ice in eastern Canada noted in Fig. 1 is slightly more than the 1981-2010 average (the orange line), while other areas have slightly less than average for this date. Compare ice growth over the last month to Fig. 3 below.
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