The administrative reports used in 2007 to support the decision to list polar bears as ‘threatened’ under the US Endangered Species Act (ESA) in 2008 disappeared from the US Geological Survey website several years ago. I have archived them here in pdf format to make them easy to find for anyone wishing to access the accuracy of the models, data, and assumptions made in 2007.
Steven Amstrup in 2005, then lead USGS polar bear biologist, with triplet cubs, Prudhoe Bay, AK.
This is a housekeeping post meant for future reference. I’ve included citations for the relevant sea ice projection papers used in the models presented in the 2007 documents and a few other related reports from the same time period.
USGS Administrative Reports 2007
US Geological Survey (USGS). 2007. Executive Summary, USGS Science Strategy to Support U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Polar Bear Listing Decision. Administrative Report, US Geological Survey. Reston, Virginia. Pdf here.
Amstrup, S.C., Marcot, B.G. & Douglas, D.C. 2007. Forecasting the rangewide status of polar bears at selected times in the 21st century. US Geological Survey. Reston, VA. Pdf here
Bergen, S., Durner, G.M., Douglas, D.C. and Amstrup, S.C. 2007. Predicting movements of female polar bears between summer sea ice foraging habitats and terrestrial denning habitats of Alaska in the 21st century: proposed methodology and pilot assessment. US Geological Survey. Reston, VA. Pdf here.
DeWeaver, E. 2007. Uncertainty in climate model projections of Arctic sea ice decline: An evaluation relevant to polar bears. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA. Pdf here.
Durner, G.M., Douglas, D.C., Nielson, R.M., Amstrup, S.C. and McDonald, T.L. 2007. Predicting 21st-century polar bear habitat distribution from global climate models. US Geological Survey. Reston, Virginia. Pdf here.
Hunter, C.M., Caswell, H., Runge, M.C., Regehr, E.V., Amstrup, S.C. and Stirling, I. 2007. Polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea II: demography and population growth in relation to sea ice conditions, 2001-2006. Administrative Report US Geological Survey, Reston, VA. Pdf here.
Obbard, M.E., McDonald, T.L., Howe, E.J., Regehr, E.V. and Richardson, E.S. 2007. Polar bear population status in southern Hudson Bay, Canada. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA. Pdf here.
Regehr, E.V., Hunter, C.M., Caswell, H., Amstrup, S.C. & Stirling, I. 2007. Polar bears in the Southern Beaufort Sea I: Survival and breeding in relation to sea ice conditions. US Geological Survey. Reston, Virginia. Pdf here.
Rode, K.D., Amstrup, S.C. and Regehr, E.V. 2007. Polar bears in the Southern Beaufort Sea III: Stature, mass, and cub recruitment in relationship to time and sea ice extent between 1982 and 2006. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA. Pdf here.
Stirling, I., McDonald, T.L., Richardson, E.S. and Regehr, E.V. 2007. Polar bear population status in the Northern Beaufort Sea. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA. Pdf here.
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Related (cited in above reports):
Regehr, E.V., Amstrup, S.C. and Stirling, I. 2006. Polar bear population status in the Southern Beaufort Sea. US Geological Survey Open-File Report 2006-1337. Pdf here.
Regehr, E.V., Lunn, N.J., Amstrup, S.C. & Stirling, I. 2007. Effects of earlier sea ice breakup on survival and population size of polar bears in Western Hudson Bay. Journal of Wildlife Management 71: 2673-2683. Paywalled, subscription required. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.2193/2006-180/abstract
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Related: Sea Ice Projections (cited in above reports):
Holland, M.M., C.M. Bitz, and B. Tremblay. 2006. Future reductions in the summer Arctic sea ice. Geophysical Research Letters. 33:L23503. Open access, pdf here.
Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor, and H.L. Miller (Editors). 2007. Summary for policymakers. In Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, United Kingdom. Available at https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/spm.html Pdf here.
Zhang, X. & Walsh, J.E. 2006. Toward a Seasonally Ice-Covered Arctic Ocean: Scenarios from 991 the IPCC AR4 Model Simulations. Journal of Climate 19: 1730-1747. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3767.1 Open access, pdf here.
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Related: Sea Ice Projections available in 2004:
ACIA 2005. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment: Scientific Report. Cambridge University Press. Preface here. Chapter 6. Cryosphere and Hydrololgy. Pdf here. Graphics package here.
Hassol, S.J. 2004. Impacts of a Warming Arctic: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment Synthesis Report. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge UK. [summary for policy makers published ahead of the report containing the science background] Pdf here.
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Related: Polar bear assessment by USFWS 2006:
Schliebe, S. Evans, T., et al. 2006. Range-wide status review of the polar bear (Ursus maritimus). Report prepared for the US Fish and Wildlife Service, Anchorage, Alaska. Pdf here.
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