Category Archives: Advocacy

Willie Soon on fire talking to Tucker Carlson about the role of the sun in climate change

Posted on January 9, 2024 | Comments Off on Willie Soon on fire talking to Tucker Carlson about the role of the sun in climate change

Well worth the 50 minutes or so to listen to astrophysicist Willie Soon’s interview with Tucker Carlson, on Twitter/X Episode #62. You don’t have to be signed up to Twitter/X to listen. Background information on the topics covered by Soon can be found here: https://www.ceres-science.com/post/dr-willie-soon-s-interview-by-tucker-carlson-december-2023

https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1744777758507504061

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Posted in academic freedom, Advocacy, science, Uncategorized

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Polar bears and sea ice fail to implode in 2023 as predicted, with special thanks for your support

Posted on December 29, 2023 | Comments Off on Polar bears and sea ice fail to implode in 2023 as predicted, with special thanks for your support

As this year draws to a close, it is worth noting that over the last 12 months — and contrary to predictions and headlines, including claims about “the warmest year ever” — polar bears have not been reported dying, starving, or eating each other in large numbers, or relentlessly attacking people. On top of that, summer sea ice coverage in the Arctic has stalled for the last 17 years, not melted out in a death spiral of rotten ice.

Except for the lying and obfuscation that most of us have come to expect, I’ve mostly been left to reiterate that polar bears are not “canaries in the coal mine” indicators of climate change and to point out that Arctic sea ice extent and polar bear survival are not inextricably tied. For example, in some specific areas of interest, like Western Hudson Bay, there has not been a consistent decline in sea ice over the last few decades and bears are not attacking people at increased rates because they are desperately hungry. In other areas, like the Svalbard area of the western Barents Sea, sea ice has declined dramatically in recent years yet polar bears have not been attacking people more than usual.

Contradictions and failed predictions abound.

All in all, a rather boring year for the anticipated implosion of polar bear health and survival, despite my constant tracking of publicly-available information. That said, I would like to take this opportunity to thank you all again for your continued support, and especially those who have donated hard-earned cash over the last few months: your support makes it possible for me to continue my work keeping polar bear science honest. Together, we have made a difference and I know it’s worth the fight. Because if we let evidence-based science die without challenge, we lose our ability to make sense of the world.

All the best for 2024 to you all.

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Posted in Advocacy, Polar bear attacks, Sea ice habitat, Summary

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Despite hand-wringing about Churchill polar bears this year, 2023 wasn’t their worst summer

Posted on December 9, 2023 | Comments Off on Despite hand-wringing about Churchill polar bears this year, 2023 wasn’t their worst summer

For months, the media has been bleating about the poor polar bears of Churchill suffering from lack of sea ice blamed on human-caused climate change during the so-called ‘hottest year’ on record: in April, July, August, November, and December.

From a Churchill Wild report on the condition of WH polar bears, January 2023

However, while breakup of sea ice on Hudson Bay was indeed early this year and freeze-up came later than usual, Western Hudson polar bears apparently spent only the fifth-longest time on land since 1979, according to a polar bear specialist. How is that even possible, given that sea ice conditions should be getting worse and worse as CO2 levels increase and average global temperatures rise? As I’ve pointed out before, it is apparent that Arctic sea ice is not closely coupled to CO2 levels (as the ‘experts’ claim), which makes me wonder if there is any ecologically-relevant correlation between CO2 and sea ice at all.

Money quote from Geoff York, from Polar Bears International: “As of Nov. 28 this year, the bears in western Hudson Bay had spent 164 days on shore, he said. That’s tied for the fifth-longest amount of time the bears have spent off the ice since 1979.” CBC, 9 December 2023 [my bold]

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Posted in Advocacy, Life History, Sea ice habitat

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Walrus and polar bear population size changes in the N. Atlantic over the last 20k years

Posted on November 14, 2023 | Comments Off on Walrus and polar bear population size changes in the N. Atlantic over the last 20k years

This is a lesson in how to assess the potential worth of scientific papers. One of two similar Arctic evolution studies got media attention, at least in Canada — about the polar bears, of course — but in my opinion the walrus research conclusions are much better supported, less biased by climate change rhetoric, and lack the hubris present in the polar bear paper.

Both studies use similar sample sizes for the regions they had in common (North Atlantic) and used computer models to determine genetic diversity and population size changes since the LGM. However, the tone of the walrus paper was less emotionally-charged and the caveats of the work were appropriately stated. In my opinion, papers like the polar bear example contribute to eroding the public’s trust in science.

The last Ice Age peaked between about 27,000 and 19,000 years ago. At this time the Arctic was buried under kilometers of glacial ice sheets, and so marine mammals were pushed southwards to areas of ice floes and more open water. Walrus survived in some areas of the Atlantic located further to the south, and as soon as climates warmed again, the ice edge retreated and walrus populations pushed quickly northwards again. This combination of warming and climate-driven dispersal led to local walrus populations becoming more genetically differentiated. Walrus study, Lund University press release 27 September 2023

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Posted in Advocacy, Conservation Status, Evolution, Population, Sea ice habitat

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Churchill so far has few problems with polar bears despite predictions of a record bad year

Posted on October 26, 2023 | Comments Off on Churchill so far has few problems with polar bears despite predictions of a record bad year

Despite misleading warnings in mid-August that a record number of incidents had already taken place, and that Churchill was on track for a record-number of bear problems this fall, the number of incidents and bears captured so far have been well below other years after the same number of weeks ashore. And while this is shaping up to be the longest ice-free season on record for Western Hudson Bay bears, it may not be a record year for problem bears in Churchill.

“On average, officers receive around 250 calls from residents and detain around 50 bears every year, according to statistics provided to Live Science by the Manitoba government. The record number of bears captured in a single year was 176, in 2003.” LiveScience, 16 August 2023

Pro

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Posted in Advocacy, Life History, Sea ice habitat

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Polar bear researchers hiding significant increase in Southern Hudson Bay numbers

Posted on October 16, 2023 | Comments Off on Polar bear researchers hiding significant increase in Southern Hudson Bay numbers

Last December, researchers vigorously promoted a possible 27% decline in Western Hudson Bay (WH) polar bear abundance but kept hidden the fact that adjacent Southern Hudson Bay (SH) numbers increased by 30% over the same period.

And surprise, surprise: the bombshell SH results call into question everything the ‘experts’ have been saying about polar bears in Hudson Bay for years.

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Posted in Advocacy, Population, science, Sea ice habitat

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Evolution Earth documentary comments on polar bear survival & adaptation: let’s see how they do

Posted on September 25, 2023 | Comments Off on Evolution Earth documentary comments on polar bear survival & adaptation: let’s see how they do

Just a heads-up that this week, PBS in North America will broadcast the “polar” episode of a new documentary called “Evolution Earth.” In my area, it’s scheduled for Wednesday, September 27 at 10:00 PM. It remains to be seen whether this is really about evolution or (given those involved in its production) simply more climate change propaganda similar to that promoted by Attenborough, but I intend to watch and report back.

About the Show: “Evolution Earth embarks on a global expedition to reveal the animals keeping pace with a planet changing at superspeed. Heading out across the globe to distant wilds and modern urban environments, five episodes track how animals are moving, using ingenuity to adapt their behavior, and even evolving in unexpected ways.

…We follow heart-warming tales of resilience that redefine our understanding of evolution, and hint at how nature can show us a path towards a sustainable future for Planet Earth. The series is narrated by Dr. Shane Campbell-Staton, who guides us through each episode in an intimate narrative style, drawing on his background as an evolutionary biologist.”

Episode 4 | Ice “At the planet’s frozen extremes, shifts in animal movement and behavior reveal vital information about our future world. Examine polar bears in the Arctic, penguins in Antarctica and other animals surviving in icy worlds.“

Find tips for watching outside the US here.

UPDATE 27 September 2023: Well, as I expected, this show was full of Attenborough-style nonsense about starving polar bears waiting for sea ice to form along Western Hudson Bay, the bears presented as “canaries in a coal mine” indicators of climate change, with an activist scientist saying she’s “pissed” about climate change. They used charts of the very distinctive pattern of sea ice formation that took place in November 2020 to illustrate how freeze-up was “later and later each year” even though 2020 was one of the earliest freeze-ups on record (bears were successfully hunting from shorefast ice as early as 30 October). A waste of 15 minutes: I couldn’t bear to watch what they did with the penguins.

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Posted in Advocacy, emperor penguin, Evolution, Sea ice habitat

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17 years of near-zero trend in September sea ice demolishes claim that more CO2 means less sea ice

Posted on September 22, 2023 | Comments Off on 17 years of near-zero trend in September sea ice demolishes claim that more CO2 means less sea ice

If the hottest year ever can’t precipitate ‘ice-free’ conditions in September, what’s it going to take? Arctic sea ice failed to nose-dive again this year, undoubtedly disappointing expects who have been anticipating a ‘death-spiral’ decline for ages. Arctic sea ice hit its seasonal low sometime around mid-September this year and although the precise value hasn’t been published, the average September ice coverage will likely be about 4.2 mkm2 once it gets announced in early October.

This means we have now had 17 years of a near-zero trend for September sea ice, extending the nearly-flat trend NSIDC sea ice experts acknowledged four years ago. This surely busts a huge hole in the prevailing concept that more atmospheric CO2 causes less summer sea ice. Note that CO2 levels measured in August 2023 were 419.7 parts per million (ppm), compared to 382.2 in August 2007, a rise of 37.5ppm with no corresponding decline in summer sea ice (and vs. 314.2 ppm in 1960). Measured in metric tons, CO2 emissions due to fossil fuels rose from 31.1 billion in 2007 to 37.1 billion in 2021 (last year of data), again with no corresponding decline in summer sea ice.

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New study that claims it can directly link GHG emissions to polar bear cub survival is poppycock

Posted on August 31, 2023 | Comments Off on New study that claims it can directly link GHG emissions to polar bear cub survival is poppycock

A global warming miracle has happened. While no scientist worldwide has ever drawn a straight line between greenhouse gas emissions and population declines in a species considered at risk due to climate change, a new paper just published in Science Magazine claims to have performed this unlikely feat for polar bears. It’s called “Unlock the Endangered Species Act to address GHG emissions.”

Note this analysis has not been peer reviewed: as a “Policy Forum” contribution, it’s considered by the journal to be a public interest commentary, not a research paper.

One might be forgiven for asking whether this work represents solid, reproducible science or simply well-timed, sciency-looking rhetoric ready-made for the litigious Center for Biological Diversity to pressure the US government to increase protections for polar bears before the 2024 US election. It is surely no coincidence that this paper made its appearance near the seasonal low for Arctic sea ice as well as during the 15-year anniversary of the ESA listing of polar bears as ‘threatened’ and the 50th anniversary of the ESA itself.

Moreover, knowing this paper was in the pipeline might explain why the 2022 government report on the most recent Western Hudson Bay polar bear decline, which I discussed yesterday, has been kept secret for so long: the results of that report are cited in this new Science paper as supporting evidence that sea ice declines are responsible for recent population declines, which Reuters said in December was clearly not the case for the period 2017-2021.

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Posted in Advocacy, Population, Sea ice habitat

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W. Hudson Bay polar bear numbers declined 27% in 2021 but not because of missing ice: secret paper

Posted on August 30, 2023 | Comments Off on W. Hudson Bay polar bear numbers declined 27% in 2021 but not because of missing ice: secret paper

As will become apparent tomorrow, Western Hudson Bay polar bear numbers apparently declined 27% between 2017 and 2021 but not because of sea ice loss. This fact, gleaned from a secret government report leaked to the media, emerged just before Christmas last year and spread around the world. I commented on it here at the time.

It will also be apparent tomorrow why that government report is still unavailable. Thursdays are when the big two science magazines publish their papers, which means associated news stores promoting preferred narratives are embargoed until then. Stay tuned.

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