On sale at Amazon today, my new full-length science book, The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened, published by the Global Warming Policy Foundation.
Paperback and ebook versions are available. See the GWPF press release here.
The official book launch is 10 April in Calgary, details below.
About the book
The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened explains why the catastrophic decline in polar bear numbers we were promised in 2007 failed to materialize. It’s the layman’s story of how and why the polar bear came to be considered `Threatened’ with extinction and tracks the species rise and fall as an icon of the global warming movement. The book also tells the story of my role in bringing that failure to public attention – and the backlash against me that ensued.
For the first time, you’ll see a frank and detailed account of attempts by scientists to conceal population growth as numbers rose from an historical low in the 1960s to the astonishing highs that surely must exist after almost 50 years of protection from overhunting. There is also a discussion of what thriving populations of bears mean for the millions of people who live and work in areas of the Arctic inhabited by polar bears.
Title: The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened
Author: Susan J. Crockford
Publisher: Global Warming Policy Foundation
Publication date: 17 March 2019
Formats: Papberback and Ebook
Number of pages: 209
Order it here.
Posted in Book review, Polar bear attacks, Population, Sea ice habitat, Summary
Tagged attacks, extinction, facts, models, number of bears, polar bear, population size, predictions, science, sea ice, threatened
Fancy that! After a load of handwringing earlier this month, mobile pack ice in the Bering Sea has returned. Just like ice in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea ice is highly variable (Brown et al. 2011): it moves with winds and currents, so a ‘decline’ during the winter usually indicates redistribution, not melting.
Polar bear on Bering Sea ice 2007 USFWS
According to researcher Rick Thoman from the University of Alaska Fairbanks, quoted by the Canadian Press:
“Wind blew ice to Russian beaches in the west and to the south side of Norton Sound south of Nome but left open water all the way to Chukchi Sea north of the Bering Strait.”
Polar bears that venture into the Bering Sea are part of the Chukchi Sea subpopulation, which is known to be thriving (Crockford 2019; AC SWG 2018; Regehr et al. 2018; Rode and Regehr 2010; Rode et al. 2013, 2014, 2015, 2018).
Posted in Advocacy, Sea ice habitat
Tagged Bering Sea, Chukchi Sea, decline, disappearing, facts, gone, open water, polar bear, science, sea ice, winds, winter
The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened is almost here! The book is scheduled for release (in paperback and ebook formats) on Tuesday 19 March 2019. Tuesday is also the day I’ll be talking to Glenn Beck on his radio show (11 am ET) about polar bear population numbers and my book. How many polar bears are really out there now, you ask? My book has a credible new answer that may surprise you.
The official book launch event will be 10 April in Calgary, just ahead of the annual Friends of Science Climate lecture evening, where I’ll be presenting alongside astrophysicist Willie Soon. You can pick up an autographed copy of The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened there.
Posted in Book review, Conservation Status, Polar bear attacks, Population, Summary
Tagged book launch, catastrophe, facts, hypothesis, polar bear, population numbers, release date, science, sea ice
Abundant ice in Svalbard, East Greenland and the Labrador Sea is excellent news for the spring feeding season ahead because this is when bears truly need the presence of ice for hunting and mating. As far as I can tell, sea ice has not reached Bear Island, Norway at this time of year since 2010 but this year ice moved down to the island on 3 March and has been there ever since. This may mean we’ll be getting reports of polar bear sightings from the meteorological station there, so stay tuned.
Sea ice extent as of 11 March 2019, from NSIDC Masie:
Much of the ice that was blown out of the Bering Sea early in the month has returned and ice in the Gulf of St. Lawrence on the East Coast of Canada is the highest its been in years, threatening to impede ferry traffic between Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, as it did in 2015 and again in 2017. The fishing season off Newfoundland might also be delayed by the heavy ice, as it was in 2017.
Posted in Polar bear attacks, Sea ice habitat
Tagged Barents Sea, Bear Island, Bering Sea, facts, Gulf of St. Lawrence, heavy ice, Labrador, Newfoundland, polar bear, science, sea ice, Svalbard
On 10 April 2019, I am giving a polar bear lecture for Friends of Science in Calgary (“Polar Bears: Too Hot to Handle”) alongside astrophysicist Willie Soon (“The Sun Also Warms”) at their annual climate science event. Early bird ticket discounts are available now until February 28 only (but full price tickets can be purchased until April 2).
If you can, do join us. A buffet dinner is included in the ticket price.
The launch event for my new book, The Polar Bear Catastrophe that Never Happened will take place earlier in the day (noon-ish) and you are welcome to attend that as well. The book will be available for purchase at the evening lecture event and I will be more than happy to autograph your copies. Copies of my novel (EATEN) and my polar bear science book for kids (Polar Bear Facts & Myths) will also be available for purchase and signing. Details below.
Polar Bear Facts and Myths (for children aged 7 and up) is now avaiblable in Norwegian!
The same day as a glowing review of the Dutch translation of my popular children’s science book appeared in de Telegraaf (front page and all of page 5, 19 November 2018, pdf here), I am thrilled to announce that this important book is now available in Norwegian via Amazon worldwide, including European outlets.
The translation was done by native Norwegian speakers Arve Tunstad and Morten Jødal. In Norwegian the book is called ISBJØRN Fakta og Myter.
Please pass along to your friends, relatives, and colleagues in North America and abroad (calling all Sons of Norway). The English version is still available in paperback and ebook formats. Other translations in French and German are already available: five languages in all, including Dutch.
Details below on the Norwegian version. Continue reading
Given my strong Dutch heritage through my maternal grandfather (via Middelharnis), I am especially proud to announce that the Dutch translation of my popular science book, Polar Bear Facts and Myths (suitable for children aged seven and up), is now available through Amazon worldwide in paperback.
The translation was done by native Dutch speaker Marcel Crok who is a journalist and science writer in The Netherlands (see @marcelcrok on twitter). In Dutch the book is called Feiten en Mythes over IJsberen.
Please pass along to your friends, relatives, and colleagues in North America and abroad. The English version is still available in paperback and ebook formats, and the Norwegian translation will be available shortly. Other translations in French and German are already available.
Why this book is important
Children around the world have been led to believe that only a few hundred polar bears are left in the world. However, the relentless messaging that polar bears are doomed (and that this is all the fault of humans) is fortunately false. It is time that children learned the truth, including those that speak and read only Dutch.
Here is the good news the children need to hear: polar bears have not been driven to the brink of extinction by anthropogenic global warming. In fact, there are many more polar bears now than there were 50 years ago and the global population of polar bears is a healthy size, despite the fact that summer sea ice has been at levels predicted to cause catastrophe since 2007. Polar bears have managed just fine with low summer ice: against all expectations, their number have increased in recent years, not declined.
Polar Bear Facts & Myths is an uplifting science book about survival in the Arctic that is sure to please children and parents alike.
Details below. Continue reading
Posted in Book review, Life History
Tagged children, Dutch, facts, IJsberen, myths, Netherlands, non-fiction, polar bear, science, translation
Large margins of error in polar bear population estimates means the conservation status threshold of a 30% decline (real or predicted) used by the US Endangered Species Act and the IUCN Red List is probably not valid for this species.
Several recent subpopulation estimates have shown an increase between one estimate and another of greater than 30% yet deemed not to be statistically significant due to large margins of error. How can such estimates be used to assess whether population numbers have declined enough to warrant IUCN Red List or ESA protection?
What do polar bear population numbers mean for conservation status, if anything?
Posted in Conservation Status, Population
Tagged baffin bay, declining, Derocher, errors, ESA, estimate, facts, IUCN Red List, numbers, polar bear, population, science, significance, statistics, Svalbard, western hudson bay
Sea ice in the Bering Sea this winter was said to be the lowest since the 1850s, largely driven by persistent winds from the south rather than the usual north winds although warm Pacific water was a factor early in the season (AIRC 2018). But what, if any, impact is this surprisingly low winter and spring ice cover likely to have on Chukchi Sea polar bear health and survival?
In fact, research on Chukchi Sea polar bears has included so few examples of individuals utilizing the Bering Sea in winter (Jan-March) and early spring (April-May) that any conclusions regarding an impact from this year’s sea ice conditions are likely to be invalid. In short, we don’t know what will happen since it has not happened before within living memory; the opinions of polar bear specialists must be taken with a grain of salt because so many of their previous assumptions have turned out to be wrong (Crockford 2017a,b, 2018), see here, here, and here. Seals, walrus and polar bears are much more flexible and resilent to changes in habitat conditions than most modern biologists give them credit for and consequently, it will be fascinating to see how the ice will change over the coming months and how the animals will respond.
Posted in Conservation Status, Life History, Sea ice habitat
Tagged Bering Sea, Chukchi Sea, facts, fast, feeding, habitat, hunting, ice-free period, mating, polar bear, science, sea ice, seals, starving
Spring in the Arctic is April-June (Pilfold et al. 2015). As late April is the peak of this critical spring feeding period for most polar bear populations, this is when sea ice conditions are also critical. This year, as has been true since 1979, that sea ice coverage is abundant across the Arctic for seals that are giving birth and mating at this time as well as for polar bears busy feeding on young seals and mating.
Below is a chart of sea ice at 25 April 2018, showing sea ice in all PBSG polar bear subpopulation regions:
Some Arctic subregions below, in detail. Continue reading
Posted in Life History, Sea ice habitat
Tagged Barents Sea, birth, facts, feeding, mating, polar bear, population size, science, sea ice, seals, spring, Svalbard, thickness