Misplaced eco-anxiety that kids have about polar bears starts with activist biologists like Steven Amstrup, spokesperson for an organization devoted to raising climate change alarm – and media outlets like The Guardian who help them spread fears unsupported by scientific evidence.
Fat healthy polar bear male at Kaktovik, Alaska in the Southern Beaufort Sea, September 2019, Ed Boudreau photo, with permission.
You can’t get much more over the top than these statements from Amstrup today but read carefully: it’s either opinion or factual aspects of polar bear life (“we know that the bears aren’t feeding”) made to sound like new, terrifying developments that can be blamed on climate change. Continue reading
Posted in Advocacy, Conservation Status, Life History, Population, Sea ice habitat
Tagged Alaska, Amstrup, Beaufort, catastrophe, Chukchi Sea, eco-anxiety, polar bear, Polar Bears International, population decline, predictions, sea ice, shrinking sea ice
Most polar bears that spend the spring feeding in the peripheral seas of the Arctic Basin (such as the Beaufort, Chukchi, Kara, and Barents Seas) remain on the persistent pack ice of the central Arctic during the summer and this August, that refugium is still larger than Greenland. Most of these bears do not use this July-September Arctic Basin ice as a hunting platform unless they are very lucky: the few seals available are hard to catch. For the most part, polar bears fast or eat very little during the summer whether they are on land or on ice (see references in this post).
Since early June, sea ice experts have been wringing their hands over the melting of Arctic sea ice and offering breathless speculation that this year’s September minimum could be – gasp! – as low as or less than 2012 or even less. But now, as the graph of ice cover at 28 August shows below, that outcome is looking not just unlikely but virtually impossible (the blue line is 2019 extent, red dashed line is 2012, and the brown line is 2016):
As expected, the failure of the ice to remain on track to set a new record September low due to global warming is shrugged off with a reminder that summer ice extent “is sensitive to changes in daily weather conditions.”
This essay explains in simple terms why so many people still believe that polar bears are in peril when nothing could be further from the truth: it is an essential lesson that shatters the basis of the shameful indoctrination of young school children and undermines the baseless claims of activist protestors. It was written and translated into French for a special climate change feature issue (July) of the monthly French magazine Valeurs Actuelles (reviewed here) and reprinted by the French hunting magazine Chasses Internationales. It has also been translated into German for a dedicated climate change issue (11 July) of the Swiss weekly magazine Die Weltwoche.
I have added a couple of figures to illustrate this English version of the essay.
Posted in Conservation Status, Population, Sea ice habitat, Summary
Tagged abundance, catastrophe, Chasses Internationales, climate change, conservation, Die Weltwoche, ESA, extinction, facts, Le Spectacle du Monde, polar bear, population size, Red list, school strike, sea ice, status, threatened
Young activists like Ollie Nancarrow from the UK need to find another symbol for their messages of climate change. Polar bears are thriving despite recent dramatic declines in summer sea ice: they have not been devastated as predicted by declining summer sea ice blamed on climate change. Anyone who uses a polar bear image to further a message of climate change, as Ollie has done, is simply out of touch with reality.
UPDATE 4 June 2019: Police instruct activist teen to remove ‘rude’ message from UK field. He turned the penis into a turtle but apparently, the polar bear remains.
Posted in Advocacy, Conservation Status, Population, Sea ice habitat
Tagged activists, catastrophe, facts, Ollie Nancarrow, polar bear, population size, predictions, sea ice, state visit, Trump
This 10 minute television interview aired a few hours ago on The Bolt Report (Sky News Australia, 26 March 2019). A short excerpt was made available as a tweet but a link to the full length podcast is below.
Ironically, despite the huge effort made by polar bear specialists and climate change activists to silence and discredit me over the last year or so, all it’s done is made more people willing to listen to what I have to say. My new book is selling phenomenally well and getting great reviews: if you haven’t ordered your ebook or paperback copy, you can do so here.
Posted in Book review, Polar bear attacks, Population, Sea ice habitat, Summary
Tagged book, catastrophe, estimates, interview, media, numbers, podcast, polar bear, population, predictions, sea ice, TV
It’s long past time for polar bear specialists to stop holding out for a scientifically accurate global estimate that will never be achieved and determine a reasonable and credible ‘best guess’. Since they have so far refused to do this, I have done it for them. My extrapolated estimate of 39,000 (range 26,000-58,000) at 2018 is not only plausible but scientifically defensible.
In 2014, the chairman of the IUCN Polar Bear Specialist Group (PBSG) emailed me to say that their global population size number ‘has never been an estimate of total abundance in a scientific sense, but simply a qualified guess given to satisfy public demand.’
In my new book, The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened, I contend that this situation will probably never change, so it’s time to stop holding out for a scientifically accurate global estimate and generate a reasonable and credible ‘best guess’. Recent surveys from several critical polar bear subpopulations have given us the information necessary to do this.
UPDATE: I have made this a sticky post for a while: new posts will appear below.
Posted in Conservation Status, Population, Summary
Tagged abundance, catastrophe, Crockford, ecoregion, estimate, extrapolation, global, graph, guess, how many, numbers, PBSG, polar bear, population, timeline
The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened is almost here! The book is scheduled for release (in paperback and ebook formats) on Tuesday 19 March 2019. Tuesday is also the day I’ll be talking to Glenn Beck on his radio show (11 am ET) about polar bear population numbers and my book. How many polar bears are really out there now, you ask? My book has a credible new answer that may surprise you.
The official book launch event will be 10 April in Calgary, just ahead of the annual Friends of Science Climate lecture evening, where I’ll be presenting alongside astrophysicist Willie Soon. You can pick up an autographed copy of The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened there.
Posted in Book review, Conservation Status, Polar bear attacks, Population, Summary
Tagged book launch, catastrophe, facts, hypothesis, polar bear, population numbers, release date, science, sea ice