Tag Archives: winter maximum

Late winter polar bear habitat 2017 vs. 2006 and 2011 shows no trend

Here is a bit of historical perspective for rational readers trying to make sense of the doom-mongering of others that current sea ice conditions spell trouble for polar bears, given that the winter maximum extent for 2017 reached a new seasonal low (keeping in mind that NSIDC does not publish error bars for these measurements, which helps elevate such pronouncements to “news”).

Ice extent (courtesy NSIDC’s MASIE) at 25 March (Day 84) is below for 2017, 2011 and 2006, almost 3 weeks after the winter maximum was declared at 7 March for 2017, 9 March for  2011, and 12 March for 2006. Extent at the maximum for 2006 was estimated at 14.68 mkm2, 14.42 mkm2 for 2017, and 14.67 mkm2 in 2011 (what tiny differences make headlines these days).

Remember: there are no polar bears in the Sea of Okhotsk or in the Baltic Sea (marked with an * below) yet ice in those regions is included in the Arctic totals used to determine maximum seasonal extent. Much (and sometimes, all) of the “Arctic” variation in extent at this time of year is accounted for by variation in Sea of Okhotsk and Baltic Sea coverage.

Sea ice day 84 March 25 2017_2011_2006 labeled

Bottom line: total winter ice extent for the Arctic ≠ winter polar bear habitat and neither have changed much in a decade.

See close up of the above graphic below.

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Worrywart biologists fuel media fearmongering over winter sea ice levels

Have you heard the old adage, “Don’t buy trouble”? I’m thinking we could use a lot more of that attitude from polar bear and Arctic seal biologists these days.

Gulf St Lawrence ice conc 7 March 2016_CIS

In an interview with CBC News yesterday, Department of Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) seal specialist Mike Hammill fed the fear the media wanted to hear while admitting this year’s low ice levels in the Gulf of St. Lawrence will not affect harp seal numbers significantly (7 March 2016, Lack of ice means fewer seal pups off the Magdalen Islands this year: Researcher says impact on overall herd limited, but ice patterns over time could be concern”).

Harp sea newborn_wikipedia

And University of Alberta’s Andrew Derocher has been busy tweeting his heart out that slightly lower than average sea ice levels this winter could mean a “challenging” spring for some polar bears – as if spring isn’t always challenging for some bears (especially young bears that are inexperienced hunters and low in the social hierarchy – meaning bigger, older bears often steal their kills – and old bears that are running out of steam).
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