According to NSIDC daily sea ice interactive graph, there was ever so slightly more ice on 31 Dec 2016 than on that date in 2010. However, the corresponding ice maps show just how differently that ice was distributed.
Recall that in 2010, there was no huge die-off of polar bears attributed to reduced amounts of sea ice in the fall (or to reduced ice in summer, for that matter) because there was no catastrophic die-off at all.
Comments Off on Polar bear habitat message for the year end: 2016 Arctic ice extent same as 2010
Posted in Sea ice habitat
Tagged Barents Sea, extent, habitat, MASIE, NSIDC, polar bear, population decline, sea ice, Svalbard
The trolls are out in force at Amazon, posting negative reviews of my new book, Polar Bear Facts & Myths – they just hate it when credible scientists won’t promote a message of doom. It seems folks of this ilk truly want children to have nightmares about drowning, starving polar bears; they encourage kids to frantically turn out lights in a vain attempt to “Save The Sea Ice” while unbeknownst to them, the polar bears and seals prosper.
I expect those same fear-mongers will really hate my next book, due to be released early next week, because it presents the evidence in a way all readers will understand with the references to back it up. Polar bears and ringed seals are thriving despite recent losses of summer sea ice and there is seemingly a huge body of activists and scientists who don’t want people to know that simple fact.
Coming soon Polar Bears: Outstanding Survivors of Climate Change
Back to polar bear habitat news, here is the sea ice map for 30 December 2016: Hudson Bay iced-over and lots of ice moving down southern Davis Strait:
Compare to last year at this time, when polar bears did not die off in droves anywhere in Canada (or we would have heard about it) – remember that 2/3 of the word’s polar bears live in Canada:
Comments Off on Polar bear habitat update and attempts to spoil the good news for kids
Posted in Advocacy, Conservation Status, Life History, Sea ice habitat
Tagged book review, children, climate change, extinction, Facts and Myths, fear-mongering, polar bear, sea ice, survivors, threatened, trolls
If 10 years of summer sea ice levels expected to kill 2/3 of the world’s polar bears by 2050 hasn’t had an impact, why would anyone expect a bit less summer ice will do the job?
The more the polar bears fail to die in droves, the shriller the message from activist polar bear researchers – via willing media megaphones – that the great death of the bears will soon be upon us, just you wait and see!
Some big media guns were out this past week spreading the prophesy of doom fed to them by the polar bear researchers most committed to the “threatened with extinction” narrative: The New York Times, The Atlantic, The Guardian. The desperation is becoming palpable as the public catches on to their epic failure.
In 2007, the sea ice dropped to a level the experts said wouldn’t be reached until mid-century, and since then, it has remained at that low level (about 3-5mkm2, give or take some measuring error). And in 2007, US Geological Survey (USGS) biologists said with absolute confidence that when sea ice levels reached that point, 2/3 of the world’s polar bears would be gone.
No bears at all would remain, they said, in Western Hudson Bay (the Churchill bears), Southern Hudson Bay, Foxe Basin, Davis Strait, Baffin Bay, Southern Beaufort, Chukchi Sea, Barents Sea, Kara Sea, and the Laptev Sea: ten out of 19 subpopulations would be extirpated if sea ice levels in most years dropped to the summer lows in the 3-5 mkm2 range.
On the basis of that prediction, polar bears were declared ‘threatened’ with extinction by the US Fish & Wildlife Service (USFWS) under the Endangered Species Act (ESA).
But nothing of the kind happened. There are still lots of polar bears – and not even struggling-to-survive bears but lots of fat healthy bears everywhere across the Arctic, in what were considered by USGS biologists to be the most vulnerable regions of all: Western Hudson Bay (i.e., Churchill), Chukchi Sea and Southern Beaufort (Alaska) and the Barents Sea (Norway).
This is the truth the world needs to hear: the experts were wrong. Polar bears have not been driven to the brink of extinction by climate change, they are thriving. This is the message of each of my two new books (one of which is appropriate for kids of all ages, see the sidebar).
In turns out that polar bears are much more resilient to changing levels of sea ice than data collectors assume and the proof is in the current healthy populations everywhere. Continue reading
Comments Off on As polar bear populations fail to decline with sea ice, message of doom intensifies
Posted in Advocacy, Sea ice habitat, Summary
Tagged advocacy, Beaufort, Chukchi, Churchill, declining population, declining sea ice, Derocher, extinction, facts, failed predictions, freeze-up, hype, Kaktovik, media, misinformation, myths, observations, polar bear, predictions, starving, Svalbard, threatened, USFWS, USGS, western hudson bay
The first science book suitable for kids that tells the whole truth about polar bears and climate change is now for sale at Amazon.
This beautiful, full color summary (44 pages, 8 x 10 inches) explains in simple terms why polar bears are thriving despite the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. It’s written in a question and answer format, in language that readers of all ages can understand (age 7 and up). The book takes a sensible, big-picture approach that many readers will appreciate and is based on the most up-to-date information available.
This is the perfect gift for some of the polar bear lovers on your gift list and if you act quickly (order here), your book may arrive before the 25th. At this time, only the paperback is available but some ebook versions should be out shortly.
For purchasers for which a pre-Christmas delivery isn’t going to work (publication will be later in Europe; shipping is faster to eastern Canada and the US than to the west), I have provided a gift card you can download to print off and give in lieu of the physical book (kind of a placeholder until it arrives).
UPDATE: 18 Dec. 2016 Now listed at Amazon Canada and Amazon UK
Download gift card PDF HERE for Polar Bear Facts & Myths
Download gift card PDF HERE for Polar Bears: Outstanding Survivors of Climate Change (coming soon, see below).
[Download Christmas gift cards, one per page, for both books here]
Check my book website for updates.
This color, fully-referenced polar bear science book is aimed at adults and high school students. Polar Bears: Outstanding Survivors of Climate Change is fashioned after the popular lecture with the same title I have given since 2009, which has been enthusiastically received by audiences with diverse backgrounds.
My book website now has full details of these new non-fiction books (along with a revised author biography) and will be updated regularly regarding formats and venues as they become available. Details for EATEN on that site has moved to its own fiction page.
Comments Off on Polar Bear Facts & Myths now available and may arrive in time for Christmas
Posted in Book review, Conservation Status, Life History, Sea ice habitat
Tagged book, children, climate change, extinction, facts, gifts, myths, polar bear, sea ice, students, summary, survivors, threatened
The IUCN Polar Bear Specialist Group, the IUCN Red List, and Environment Canada (see below) agree that the population size of Western Hudson Bay subpopulation is 1030 or about 1000 bears, based on surveys conducted in 2011.
For the last few months (most recently, here and here), Andrew Derocher has been telling anyone who will listen that that the number is 800. And no one challenges him – not a single reporter asks where the number comes from, not a single research colleague who knows the truth has publicly stated that Derocher is spreading misinformation.
UPDATE 16 December 2016, half an hour after posting: Add The Atlantic to those accepting Derocher’s misinformation on WHB polar bear numbers without question, and failing to see that because patrols in Churchill were stepped up considerably after a serious mauling occurred in 2013 (because several bears got through their Halloween dragnet), more “problem” bears in Churchill since then only mean the Polar Bear Alert folks are doing their jobs.
But what does The Atlantic conclude, after talking to Derocher?
“The Churchill bears…are probably doomed.“
Never was a rational book on the science and conservation status of polar bears more desperately needed – it will be available soon.
Continue reading
Comments Off on W. Hudson Bay had 1030 polar bears at last count and that is the official number
Posted in Advocacy, Conservation Status, Population, Sea ice habitat
Tagged breakup, count, fake news, freeze-up, misinformation, polar bear, population size, sea ice, survey, western hudson bay
Ringed seal biologist Steven Ferguson, in a statement to a reporter from the Winnipeg Free Press, made one of the boldest predictions I’ve ever heard:
“Hudson Bay could experience its first ice-free winter within 5-10 years.”
You heard it here, folks. It appears Ferguson thinks Hudson Bay was never ice-free in winter even during the Eemian Interglacial, when the Bering Sea was ice-free in winter – something that has not come close happening in recent years (Polyak et al. 2010:1769).
Sounds like a bit of ill-advised grandstanding to me.
Comments Off on Hudson Bay could be ice-free in winter within 5-10 years, says seal researcher
Posted in Life History, Sea ice habitat
Tagged crystal ball, Ferguson, Hudson Bay, ice-free, population decline, population size, predictions, ringed seals, winter ice
There is no serious ice on the west shore of Hudson Bay yet (as the map below shows) but the winds have just shifted – instead of coming from the south, they are now blowing in from the north.
Freeze-up and a resumption of seal hunting for Western and Southern Hudson Bay polar bears looks imminent. The bears get out on the ice as soon as they are physically able, when the ice is about 3-4 inches thick (about 10 cm).
I’m going to let Kelsey Eliasson from PolarBearAlley, on shore at Churchill, convey the gist of the freeze-up situation on the Bay.
Recall that freeze-up was late in both 1998 and 1999 – during the height of that strong El Niño warmth as well as the year following. Continue reading
Comments Off on An El Niño year late start to freeze-up on Hudson Bay: bears gearing up to hunt
Posted in Conservation Status, Life History, Sea ice habitat
Tagged Churchill, cubs, freeze-up, Hudson Bay, hunting, polar bear, population size, seals, western hudson bay, winds
A brief historical perspective on the failed predictions that have plagued scientific understanding of Arctic sea ice changes – predictions embraced wholeheartedly by polar bear specialists and conservation experts. It’s worth a watch.
Transcript here from the Global Warming Policy Foundation.
Comments Off on History of anxiety over sea ice gets a video
Posted in Advocacy, Sea ice habitat, Summary
Tagged death spiral, decline, extinction, facts, history, polar bear, predictions, sea ice, September ice minimum, threatened
This is a follow-up to my last post and this time, I’ll address the implied correlation between freeze-up dates for Hudson Bay and Churchill temperatures in November that is being made by folks who should know better .
Monday, 14 November 2016 a.m, over at Polar Bears International [my bold]:
“As a new week starts in Churchill, the weather is the warmest we’ve ever seen at this time of year. The tundra is muddy, with remnant patches of snow, and the bay is ice-free.” PBI Blog (no author designated)
Well, that may be true for the last few years – the high on 14 November 2016 (-1.20C) was the highest since 2012.
Andrew Derocher made a similar statement on the 4th (my bold):
“There’s no sea ice anywhere in Hudson Bay yet—not even in the northern part of the Bay where ice should be forming. It’s above freezing today and if the forecast holds, it will be a record high for this date. It was 10 degrees colder last year at this time.”
Derocher is being unscientifically vague here and also misleadingly cites highs and lows as if they were the same. In fact, according to weather records kept by Environment Canada, for 4 November 2016 at Churchill, the daily high was +1.50C (compared to –1.50C in 2015). The daily low in 2015 was -15.30C, a 10 degree difference. The next-highest temp. for that date since 2012 was +0.70C in 2014 – hardly an earth-shattering difference.
However, if you are trying to draw conclusions about climate, you should go back at least 60 years (two climate periods of 30 years each). Temperature records for Churchill go back to 1943, which can be used to assess the claim for the 14th of November made by PBI.
According to weather records kept by Environment Canada, for 14 November at Churchill, the year with the highest temperature was 1975 (+2.20C):
That was Monday. But as of yesterday, the weather recorded – and the forecast for the following week (17-23 November) was quite different, as the screencap below shows:
The final recorded max. for yesterday (Thurs. 17 Nov) was -9.70C vs. a min. of -17.70C. So, a bit warmer during the day than predicted but as cold as expected overnight.
And for today, the current temperature in Churchill, as I write this is, is -190C (-310C with the wind chill) and the year with the highest temperature recorded for 18 November was 1944 (0.00C) – which was also the highest temperature for the 19th, recorded in 1943.
Ice maps and historical background below. See last post for recent multi-year comparison.
Continue reading
Comments Off on No correlation between freeze-up dates for WHB sea ice & Churchill temperatures
Posted in Advocacy, Sea ice habitat
Tagged advocacy, Churchill, correlations, Derocher, freeze-up, historical records, Hudson Bay, observations, PBI, polar bear, sea ice, temperatures, western hudson bay
Guess which year between 2006 and 2016 had the latest start to freeze-up on Hudson Bay, given that 2012 had the lowest September average and 2007 and 2016 tied for second-lowest (see graph below, from NSIDC), and that sea ice in the Arctic right now is the lowest it’s been for this date since 1979?
If you guessed anything other than 2010, you guessed wrong – in addition, 2006 (not 2016) was second latest.
There is no correlation between Arctic sea ice coverage and freeze-up dates for Western Hudson Bay.
Yet, Polar Bears International (“Save Our Sea Ice”) – who were surely in and around Churchill in 2010 and 2006 watching polar bears – just posted an alarming statement about local conditions, implying that slow freeze-up of Hudson Bay this year is a reflection of the fact that “sea ice is at a record low across the Arctic.”
They also claim that “…the weather is the warmest we’ve ever seen at this time of year.” That may be true, but if so, it is also meaningless with respect to the progress of freeze-up.
Does no one at PBI remember the very late freeze-up of 2010 or 2006? Odd, that.
Comments Off on No correlation between freeze-up dates for Hudson Bay & total Arctic ice cover
Posted in Conservation Status, Life History, Polar bear attacks, Sea ice habitat
Tagged Arctic, attack, Derocher, fall, fatality, freeze-up, Hudson Bay, Lunn, minimum ice extent, PBI, polar bear, Polar Bears International, population size, problem bears, sea ice, western hudson bay
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