Steve Amstrup has left a comment below his January 20, 2014 “starving polar bears’ article at The Conversation, which I discussed in my last post.
I’ve copied his comment below and the response to his comment that I left this morning, which is copied below his. See the entire comment sequence here.
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Comments Off on Amstrup’s comment on his starving polar bear article and my response
Posted in Advocacy, History, Life History, Sea ice habitat
Tagged activist scientists, advocacy, Amstrup, climate models, global warming, Polar Bears International, sea ice declines, sea ice extent, September sea ice, starving polar bears
As if on cue just before an important polar bear announcement, Steven Amstrup, full time employee of Polar Bears International (PBI), is crying “starving polar bears” yet again, with a laughable twist.
Over at “The Conversation” (a university supported forum for academics), in a piece titled “Cold weather in the US no solace for starving polar bears,” Amstrup uses his adjunct affiliation at University of Wyoming to unleash a bit of unpaid advertising for PBI’s alarmist message (I put it this way because while Amstrup does disclose his affiliation at PBI, he is more than just an affiliated member, he is their paid spokesperson).
Ironically, the headline photo (Fig. 1) is the notorious “Ursus bogus,” the photoshopped image used by the journal Science back in May 2010 to feature an article on the integrity of science, It was quickly exposed by Tim Blair at The Telegraph (also covered at WUWT), and the journal was obliged to acknowledge the error, replace the image and issue a correction.
In this case, commenter Brad Keyes at The Conversation defends the use of the “Ursus bogus” image with this astonishing statement [UPDATE Jan. 25/14: it has since transpired that this was almost certainly meant to be satire]:
“The problem is, only sensational exaggeration makes the kind of story that will get politicians’—and readers’—attention. So, yes, climate scientists might exaggerate, but in today’s world, this is the only way to assure any political action and thus more federal financing to reduce the scientific uncertainty.”
Figure 1. The headline photo from Steven Amstrup’s article at The Conversation. This infamous “Ursus bogus” image (for sale at IStock photos, listed under “Global warming images”), says “This image is a photoshop design. Polarbear, ice floe, ocean and sky are real, they were just not together in the way they are now.”
However, we now know that Amstrup is crying wolf — summer sea ice has been declining despite a hiatus in global warming and unusual numbers of polar bears are not starving. He seems to think that if he keeps repeating his Chicken Little message (with nary a recent photo of an actual starving polar bear) he will convince more people to believe him and donate to PBI. It’s his job to do so of course, so he’s not likely to stop. [pardon my mixed metaphor – Amstrup, if you recall, prefers a Titanic metaphor]
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Comments Off on Amstrup repeats starving polar bear nonsense, features “Ursus bogus”
Posted in Advocacy, Conservation Status, Sea ice habitat
Tagged Amstrup, extinction, global warming, hiatus, Polar Bears International, sea ice decline, starving polar bears, summer sea ice, threatened, Ursus bogus
“Although there have been jumps and dips, average atmospheric temperatures have risen little since 1998, in seeming defiance of projections of climate models and the ever-increasing emissions of greenhouse gases.” Jeff Tollefson, January 15, 2014, Nature. [open access]
The eminent science journal Nature has finally acknowledged that global average temperatures have not behaved as predicted by climate models over the last 16 years. [h/t A. Watts]
Note that predictions of future sea ice declines and associated predictions of future polar bear declines are totally dependent on these climate models.
Here’s my question: if global temperatures have basically flat-lined since 1998, why has Arctic sea ice continued to decline?
If average global temperatures govern Arctic sea ice behavior, why was 1998 (or the year after) not the lowest September sea ice extent reached over the last 30 years? Oddly, 2012 was the lowest September extent (see graphs below, from NSIDC).
Paradoxically, not only has sea ice continued to decline since 1998 – despite the hiatus in global warming – but since 1998, all but one polar bear populations have either increased in size, not declined, or are doing very well by other measures (see previous summary post, “Polar bears have not been harmed by sea ice declines“).
Sea ice extent graphs for September (which all the hysteria is about) compared to selected months from March, June and November. Ranges given are approximate; note the differences in scale for each graph. NSIDC graphs, colored labels added.
Comments Off on Nature acknowledges warming hiatus, but does not explain continued declines in Arctic sea ice
Posted in Sea ice habitat
Tagged arctic sea ice, climate models, global temperatures, global warming, global warming hiatus, harm to polar bears, Jeff Tollefson, sea ice extent, September ice minimum
I keep coming across mentions of a grandiose plan for future polar bear research and conservation called the “Circumpolar Monitoring Framework for Polar Bears.”
This “framework” plan was referred to extensively at the recent International Polar Bear Forum (aka the “Meeting of the Parties” that signed the 1973 conservation treaty) held in Moscow, December 3-6, 2013 (see posts about the meeting here, here, and here). In fact, government representatives of all Arctic nations present at that meeting agreed in principle to support the proposed plan.
No media reports that I’ve come across after the Moscow polar bear meeting explained what the “monitoring framework” involved, so I’ve composed a brief summary and commentary, aided by some images from Dag Vongraven’s presentation in Moscow (Vongraven 2013; pdf here).
In short, Arctic government representatives at the Moscow forum agreed that all future polar bear research should be constrained by the premise that increases in global temperatures over the next century will occur exactly as predicted by climate models and will negatively affect polar bears precisely as predicted by models devised by polar bear biologists. Under the plan, subpopulations that are already showing predicted effects of global warming will get the bulk of research funds, while regions that are paradoxically not responding as predicted will get much less money for research and survey efforts.
This strategy proposes a coordinated research plan that is blatantly agenda-driven: implementing it would seriously compromise the usefulness of all research results generated for decades to come. I don’t think it’s anything close to being a scientifically valid plan, but decide for yourself.
Figure 1. Vongraven 2013, Title slide.
Comments Off on The scientific abomination that is the “Circumpolar Monitoring Framework for Polar Bears”
Posted in Conservation Status, Sea ice habitat
Tagged Amstrup, Chukchi Sea, Circumpolar monitoring framework, contradictory evidence, Dag Vongraven, Davis Strait, Foxe Basin, Harris, PBSG, Polar Bear Specialist Group, population estimates, sea ice ecoregions, Southern Hudson Bay, Ursus journal, Vladimir Kattsov, western hudson bay
This time it was Steven Amstrup of Polar Bears International (PBI), via a radio interview on Saturday December 28 “A Scientist’s New Job: Keeping The Polar Bears’ Plight Public.”
Amstrup – co-author of the models that predict the extinction of polar bears by the end of this century – had this to say about the polar bear situation in Hudson Bay:
“This year, the ice was frozen longer, so he says the bears seem to be in pretty good shape.
“But over the last two or three years, my impression has been, ‘Man, there’s a lot of skinny bears out here.’ “
On average, the sea ice in the Hudson Bay is frozen about a month less per year than it was 30 years ago. Amstrup says bears don’t eat much on land, so they lose about 2 pounds of body fat every day they’re off the ice.
“They’re 60 pounds lighter now than they might have been at this time of year 30 years ago,” he says.” [my bold]
For the last two or three years Amstrup has been seeing “a lot of skinny bears” but hasn’t taken a single photograph that he’s offered for publication or posted at PBI? Makes you wonder, doesn’t it – where are the photos of all the starving bears these guys keep talking about?
Here is a picture of a polar bear that was spending the summer on the shore of Western Hudson Bay 30 years ago, taken in July [bears were on the shore in July this year as well]. Continue reading
Comments Off on Another unsupported claim of starving polar bears in Western Hudson Bay
Posted in Advocacy, Conservation Status, Sea ice habitat
Tagged Amstrup, evidence, global warming, polar bear, skinny bears, starving polar bears, western hudson bay
From the end of October to mid-December, there has been a rapid expansion of polar bear habitat.
This month, I’ve constructed two all-in-one images that show the progressive growth of the ice relative to some critical polar bear onshore summer refuge areas and denning territory. I’ve also included a map that compares 2013 to 2009 at 18 December with the average for the 1980s, and one that shows ice thickness.
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Comments Off on Polar bear habitat update, December – still like 2009
Posted in Sea ice habitat
Tagged Canadian Ice Service, dens, ice development, MASIE, onshore, polar bear, polar bear habitat, sea ice extent, sea ice thickness, sea ice volume, winter ice
A Southern Beaufort female with cubs, from the fall of 2007.
Note the non-starving condition.
Twenty-one amazing photos of polar bears feasting on the remains of a bowhead whale carcass outside of Kaktovik, Alaska, taken by wildlife photographer Michal Tyl, have been posted by the UK Daily Mail (December 12, 2013): “Now that’s what you call a spare rib! Pack of bloody-faced polar bears spend day and night stripping a beached whale to its bones.” Have a look and see if you can spot any “starving” bears!
What you will see is the relative size of the bears: notice how much larger males are than females, how small cubs-of-the-year are relative to big males. Oh, and notice all the big fat polar bear butts. I can’t include any of the photos here because of copyright rules (the one above is from 2007) but I have included a map showing the location of Kaktovik, a quote from the article, and a link to my previous post on Kaktovik bears, which has a wealth of background information. Continue reading
Comments Off on Kaktovik polar bear photos, again no “starving” bears
Posted in Life History, Sea ice habitat
Tagged bowhead whales, fat, feeding, Kaktovik, Michael Tyl, photographs, polar bear, starving polar bears, whale carcasses
Here is the November follow-up to my post on the July track map for female polar bears being followed by satellite in the Beaufort Sea by the US Geological Survey (USGS) – Ten out of ten polar bears being tracked this summer in the Beaufort Sea are on the ice.
See that post for methods and other background on this topic, and some track maps from 2012 (also available at the USGS website here).
The track map for November is copied below (Figure 1).
By the end of November, ice covered the entire Alaska coast. Six of the bears that were being tracked in October were still present (down from ten in July) and one bear that went Arctic walkabout in October has returned. So, a total of seven bears were tracked in November.
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Comments Off on Tracking polar bears in the Beaufort Sea: November map
Posted in Sea ice habitat
Tagged Beaufort Sea, polar bears, satellite collars, sea ice, Southern Beaufort, tracking polar bears, USGS
Freeze-up in the Arctic (~October-November) is important to polar bears because for those animals that have spent the ice-free period on shore (not all do), it marks the end of their summer fast — they can finally resume seal hunting.
Polar bears in the most southern regions, like Southern Hudson Bay, Western Hudson Bay, and Davis Strait (see Fig. 1), routinely experience the longest ice-free period. As these bears all spend the summer on shore, they appreciate a timely return of the ice.
Figure 1. Polar bear subpopulations defined by the IUCN Polar Bear Specialist Group (PBSG), with a few extra labels added. I’ve rotated the original map 90 degrees (right) to make it easier to relate to the ice maps below. WH is Western Hudson Bay; SB is Southern Beaufort. Courtesy PBSG. Click to enlarge.
Southern Hudson Bay bear populations routinely experience an ice-free season that is just as long as it is for Western Hudson Bay bears. However, Southern Hudson Bay polar bears numbers have remained stable over the last 30 years. Some folks insist that Western Hudson Bay bear numbers are shrinking to a worrisome degree, despite indications that the recent decline could be nothing more than a return to sustainable levels after a rapid population increase in the late 20th century (similar to changes documented for the Davis Strait and Barents Sea subpopulations).
Have a look at how sea ice – essential polar bear hunting habitat – has developed within these regions over the last 10 days or so (end of November 2013) and how November 2013 compares to November 1979. The ice maps tell the freeze-up story.
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Comments Off on Polar bear habitat update, end of November 2013
Posted in Sea ice habitat
Tagged Barents Sea, Canadian Ice Service, Davis Strait, Hudson Bay, polar bear habitat, Polar Bear Specialist Group, polar bears, prolonged ice-free season, sea ice extent, Southern Hudson Bay, Svalbard, western hudson bay
The latest polar bear propaganda emanating from The Guardian is unscientific nonsense fed to them by activist Canadian polar bear researchers: “Polar bear numbers in Hudson Bay of Canada on verge of collapse.”
This episode of Goldenberg’s polar bear grandstanding includes a photo caption with a totally unsubstantiated claim that some folks might call a lie:
“Melting ice is cutting polar bears off from their food source in Hudson Bay, and death rates have soared.”
“Death rates have soared”? Where are all the bodies? Show us the starving bears!
In fact, the ice of Hudson Bay melts every summer and always has done. When it does, polar bears go ashore and live off the many inches of stored blubber they put on during their spring feasting on fat baby seals. The last three years, the open-water season has been only about two weeks longer than it was in the 1980s. There has been no steady increase but lots of variability.
Below I dismantle the rest of this transparently political posturing ahead of the international polar bear forum next week.
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Comments Off on Polar bear researchers still withholding Hudson Bay data
Posted in Advocacy, Conservation Status, Sea ice habitat
Tagged Amstrup, breakup, climate change, conservation, death rates, Derocher, Environment minister, freeze-up, Goldenberg, Hudson Bay, melting ice, Nick Lunn, open-water season, polar bear, starving polar bears, Stirling, western hudson bay
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